Regression to the Mean
Regression to the Mean
American politics has always been able to regress to the mean, the political center, after it has gone too far left or too far right.
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Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon referring to the tendency for extreme outcomes to revert to average over time. It is, of course, not merely a metathetic phenomenon. Historically, American politics has always been able to regress to the mean, the political center, after it has gone too far left or too far right. This ability to self-correct, with the political center playing a crucial role, is a feature of our political system that has prevented our country from being dominated by extreme ideologies.
For the last several years, as America’s politics and culture have marched down the far left at such a fast and furious pace, it seemed that we had lost our ability to regress to the mean. The implications of this are significant, as it raises questions about the future of our country. Many people wonder whether our country is doomed to fail like the late-stage Roman Empire or even the late-stage Soviet Union.
Here are a few examples:
Our government spent money it didn’t have like a drunken sailor, and the interest payment on the national debt exceeded spending on national defense;
The Democrat party and its allies in legacy media have publicly decried former president Donald Trump and his supporters as Nazis and existential threats to democracy; the justice system has been manipulated to throw political opponents of the existing administration into jail;
Over-privileged college students who couldn’t point out Gaza on a map publicly sided with the terrorist group Hamas, and Jewish students, professors, and Jewish-owned businesses frequently have to face open contempt and harassment;
California’s Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat signed a new law, banning schools from notifying parents of their children’s gender identity. Parental rights be damned.
“Misgendering” someone could get you arrested, but violent criminals who robbed stores and beat up old ladies in broad day light faced little consequences. At Democrats-run cities such as San Francisco and Oakland, CA, criminals don’t get locked up but toothpastes at CVS are.
The list goes on. The failed attempt to assassinate Trump last Saturday was both the peak and almost inevitable outcome of this political and culture extremism. One thing about any extremism is that its practitioners tend to overdo it, and their excess eventually causes the tide to turn against them.
Had Trump died from Saturday’s assassination, our nation would have plunged into unimaginable darkness and chaos. However, his miraculous survival has changed many things in the right direction so far. Trump’s survival and the fortitude he demonstrated right after -the iconic image of Trump raising one fist when blood flowing down his face- has given Americans who felt the country had too far gone in the wrong direction a shot in the vein of inspiration and renewed hope. You don’t have to be a Trump supporter to admire the 78-year-old’s fighting spirit, which is what we all need to bring America from the brink of seemingly self-imposed decline.
Trump’s survival definitely unites the often-bickering Republicans whose favorite pastime are often in-fighting. For example, Nikki Haley, a GOP presidential candidate who wasn’t originally included the RNC’s original program was invited to speak. A vibrant party needs diverse voices and a united front. It is also a welcoming signs that Trump told Byron York that he threw out his original speech at RNC which was more combative and planned to give a speech that is more unifying not only with Republicans but with the whole country.
The failed assassination of Trump took the Democrats and their media mouthpiece down from their moral high horse as the incident was the latest example (there are other examples, such as the “most peaceful” riots) that it was often the radical left’s violence, not acts of Trump and supporters, that put people and democracy in harm’s way.
When MSNBC pulled the show “Morning Joe” off the air on Monday following the failed assassination of Trump, it was the liberal media’s tactic admission that the near-fatal consequence of their years of demonization of Trump and his supporters. Hopefully, the liberal media will do some introspection and tone down their inflammatory rhetoric.
I’m not saying that Trump is above criticism. Should he get elected, I will not hesitate to criticize his lousy policy. But constructive criticism is different from the Left’s constant hyperbole, equating him to Hitler and blasting his supporters as stormtroopers.
There are other signs that the failed assassination is the beginning of American politics and cultures regressing to the mean. Two days after the incident, a federal judge dismissed special counsel Jack Smith’s Florida case against Trump’s handling of classified documents. This decision, undoubtedly a significant win for Trump, could have far-reaching implications for the future of American politics. Hopefully, it marks the end of the ruling party's use of lawfare against political oppositions, a practice that is ruinous for the Constitution and the longevity of the Republic.
Another sign of culturally we are regressing to the mean and Cultural Marxism starting to lose control is that Microsoft announced this week that it had laid off a team dedicated to “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” (DEI) because DEI is “no longer business critical.” Additionally, Elon Musk announced moving the headquarters of his companies, X and SpaceX, to Texas, citing Gov. Gavin Newsom’s anti-family new law as the “final straw.”
So, what can we, as citizens, do to prevent America from succumbing to extremism and ensure the stability of the center? In addition to fortitude, I've come to realize the crucial roles of empathy and humility in the past few days.
Since last Saturday, most people have focused either on Trump or who should bear the blame. After the identity of the gunman, Thomas Crooks, was revealed, the majority of people zeroed in on speculating on Crooks’ motives. Only one person, John Hasson, an Irish Catholic and a contributor to the conservative Townhall magazine posted this message on X.com,
“This will probably be unpopular, but: Take a second to pray for Thomas Cooks’ parents. They’re living every parent’s nightmare right now Their child died doing an objectively evil and abhorrent thing. They’ll want to mourn but (understandably) they’ll expect no sympathy.”
I was deeply touched by Hasson’s thoughtfulness, and replied to him on X.com,
“Agree and thank you for reminding us. For parents, burying their child is the most tragic event in life. Even though their child had done the most awful thing, he was still their boy. As Christians, we ought to extend our sympathy to Crooks's parents. May God bring them peace and comfort.”
We will lower the political temperature in this country if we can be more emphatic with our fellow Americans and see the common humanity beyond politics. Have fierce debates, but knowing not every policy disagreement represents the next existential crisis of democracy.
Another thing I've come to appreciate in the last couple of days is humility. As C.S. Lewis eloquently stated, “Humility is not thinking less of yourself; it’s thinking of yourself less.” For Christians, humility is not a sign of weakness, but a recognition of our own fallibility, a stepping stone to finding strength in our faith in God.
Someone recently tweeted an excerpt from former President Reagan’s diary after he was shot, which he demonstrated both empathy and humility.
Trump was rarely associated with humility before. However, I noticed that something in him had changed. Please read this statement from him shortly after being shot.
Trump didn’t brag about how brave he was. Instead, he credited God for preventing the unthinkable and graciously thanked everyone else. Being so close to death will be a life-changing event for anyone; Trump is no exception. I hope to see more of this side of him.
If more of us have empathy, fortitude, and humility, we can help keep moving our country forward without falling for extremism.
I’m more hopeful than ever.