Never Assume You've Figured Trump Out

Trump’s supporters and critics alike often project their own beliefs onto him, seeing only what aligns with their perspectives.

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Is Trump an isolationist, a neoconservative, or a warmonger? This is the question many are asking this week following Trump's series of hawkish social media posts, which included strong rhetoric against Iran amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict (see here, and here).

Before Israel's sudden offensive against Iran, many, including both supporters and critics, perceived Trump's foreign policy as leaning toward 1930s isolationism. This perception was shaped by examples such as Trump's demand that America's allies spend more on their own defense.

On June 1, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) editorial board—an influential entity in conservative circles—voiced its discontent with what it characterized as the Trump administration's "soft" approach toward Iran. The WSJ editorial posed a provocative question: "Has Iran caught a break from the White House?" It pointed out that White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had instructed a pause on new sanctions against Iran, implying that President Trump retreated from his "maximum pressure" strategy on Iran.

Furthermore, Trump and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, faced backlash for allegedly proposing a deal to Iran that was even more lenient than Obama's, allowing Iran to maintain its nuclear enrichment capacity.

Yet, after Israel's successful surprise attack on Iran, news broke that Trump not only knew of Israel’s plans but also kept them under wraps, sharing no information beforehand. With Israel achieving significant victories on the battlefield, Trump’s social media posts on Iran has shifted to a more aggressive tone, even calling for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” This hardline approach has caused concern among some factions on the right, who are outspoken about their desire to avoid another “forever war” or engage in “nation building.”

The question then arises: is Trump an isolationist, a neoconservative, or has he recently transitioned from an isolationist to a warmonger under the sway of Israel and American neocon interests? In my view, the answer is none of the above.

Trump’s supporters and critics alike often project their own beliefs onto him, seeing only what aligns with their perspectives. The truth is that it is a mistake to fit Trump into any one category or to think that outside forces can easily manipulate him. Trump’s approach to foreign policy is a uniquely complex puzzle that compels us to look beyond conventional labels.

I don’t pretend to fully grasp Trump’s motivations. Below are a few observations I have made while analyzing his policies and watching him from a distance.

Trump’s foreign policy is distinct and unconventional, setting him apart from traditional leaders. Rather than adhering to a specific ideology, he approaches international relations with a businessman’s mindset: his primary goal is to secure maximum benefits for America and himself while minimizing costs to America and himself.

While Trump may enjoy flattery and seek compliments, it is a fundamental error to think that his policy decisions hinge on who flatters him the most. This lesson was painfully learned by China’s Xi Jinping. During Trump’s first term, Xi rolled out the red carpet by hosting an extravagant reception for his visit—a spectacle of such magnificence that no other world leader had experienced it. Trump reveled in the luxury and frequently labeled Xi as his good friend (although, candidly, those remarks raised some alarms for me).

Yet upon returning to the U.S., Trump did not soften his stance on China. He imposed tariffs on Chinese imports and blacklisted several Chinese companies, actions that the Biden administration continued for four years. This experience taught me to approach Trump's social media posts critically; they shouldn't be viewed as definitive policy statements. Instead, it's crucial to focus on his actions, which reveal more about his true intentions.

Trump's aversion to criticism is a trait that many people can relate to. However, it is important to note that he is not resistant to persuasion. In fact, he has demonstrated a willingness to be swayed by compelling arguments, especially when they are presented respectfully. Emotional appeals can also resonate with him, as evidenced by his discomfort with images of human suffering—a sentiment shared by many.

Trump's frequent shifts in position, often first-disclosed on social media, can create challenges for his supporters. However, from a business perspective, all deals are fluid. A successful businessman must be adaptable, making adjustments when new information emerges or circumstances change. Trump's ability to navigate unpredictable situations, rather than simply maintaining the status quo, can be viewed as an asset in the current uncertain geopolitical climate.

One certainty about Trump is that he enjoys winning and being on the winning side. This inclination likely explains his increasingly aggressive stance on Iran, particularly as Israel achieves notable victories on the battlefield. Moreover, Trump seems motivated by a desire to solidify his legacy, especially given that previous U.S. administrations—from Clinton to Biden—have struggled to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions and curb its sponsorship of terrorism against both Israelis and Americans. With Israel's recent successes against Iran, Trump is presented with a historic chance—a rare opportunity to accomplish what none of his predecessors have achieved, all while minimizing costs to the United States and himself, unless he chooses to deploy American troops, which seems improbable.

The Wall Street Journal outlines potential options for Trump: he can either leverage Israel’s bold actions against Iran to shape a new Middle East or risk allowing this transformative strategic moment to slip away. In my view, Iran should never be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, as the religious extremists in that country or its proxies may use them against Israel and the United States. If Trump supports Israel in delivering a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear development facilities, the U.S. could secure a strategic advantage in Europe and Asia against other adversaries, including Russia and China.

No matter which option Trump ultimately selects, it is important for him to maintain his independence in decision-making. No one should assume they can speak on his behalf or manipulate his choices, as he is known to publicly humiliate anyone who tries. Recently, while weighing whether the U.S. should support Israel in targeting Iran's nuclear development sites, Trump emphasized to reporters, “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.” Thus, it’s misguided for anyone to believe they have deciphered Trump’s mindset.

It’s better not to assume we have figured Trump out. His unpredictable decision-making can leave many feeling anxious and uncertain. I can only pray that the Providence that protected Trump from last year's assassination attempt leads him to make a choice that will secure peace and prosperity for America for years to come. This is not just about Trump—it’s about the future of our nation, and the rest of the world.