Five Years After COVID, It’s Safe to Tell (Some) Truths Now

It's now acceptable to express certain truths about COVID without fear of being silenced. Yet, without accountability for those who misled us, the same problematic pandemic measures could occur again.

Photo by Fusion Medical Animation on Unsplash

Recent reports from two prominent German newspapers have uncovered that Germany's intelligence agency, the BND (Federal Intelligence Service), held an 80-90% certainty back in 2020 [emphasis by me] that the COVID-19 pandemic was the result of an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). This critical information was first conveyed to then-Chancellor Angela Merkel and later her successor, Olaf Scholz. However, neither Merkel nor Scholz shared this information with the public, and the BND never published its findings.

That COVID-19 originated from the WIV is almost a foregone conclusion at this point. From a scientific standpoint, the idea that the virus responsible for the pandemic naturally evolved raises many questions, particularly regarding why Wuhan—a city located nearly a thousand miles away from the known habitats of bat coronaviruses—became the outbreak's epicenter. Moreover, the natural origin theory struggles to explain how a virus that allegedly evolved in the wild could so rapidly and effectively adapt to humans, as if it were specifically engineered for this purpose.

This week’s reports by the German press provoke even deeper concerns, shifting the focus from the origins of COVID-19 to the troubling responses of Western governments, from Berlin to Washington. There are three questions every concerned citizen should ask.

#1 Why was the BND so certain about the lab leak theory from the beginning but the CIA wasn’t?

The German newspaper reports disclosed that Germany's Federal Intelligence Service drew its conclusions from publicly available data and insights gathered through an intelligence operation called "Saaremaa." Additionally, D.R.S.T.I.C., a group of dedicated volunteers, reached a similar conclusion in 2021 that the lab leak scenario was the most plausible based solely on public information sourced from social media and Chinese websites.

It stands to reason that the CIA had access to the same publicly available data that both the BND and D.R.S.T.I.C. carefully analyzed. Moreover, it's not unreasonable to assert that the CIA possessed equal, if not greater, resources to collect non-public information in China through covert operations, just as the BND did.

Yet, despite this, the CIA has consistently communicated to the American public over the past five years that it "could not conclude whether COVID-19 was the result of a lab incident or originated in nature." Even after the BND shared its findings with the CIA in 2024, it took until January 2025 for the CIA to publicly state that it believed the COVID-19 pandemic was more likely to have stemmed from a lab, rather than a natural source. Still, even then, the CIA continued to claim it maintained "low confidence" in this assessment, thereby suggesting that the natural origin theory still holds equal plausibility.

The CIA's unsettling behavior only prompts further questions: Was the agency woefully incompetent compared to its foreign counterparts, or was it as sure as the BND since 2020 but concealed the truth from the American people for five years? If the CIA chose to misrepresent the facts, whose interests were they really trying to safeguard?

#2 Why did Merkel and Scholz keep quiet about the BND’s finding?

According to the two German newspapers, shortly after COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel instructed the country’s intelligence agency to investigate the virus's origins. Despite the BND presenting its findings with a high level of confidence in the lab leak theory, Merkel failed to make any public announcements on the matter. Even after the German newspaper disclosed these findings recently, she chose not to comment. Her successor, Olaf Scholz, has also remained conspicuously silent.

This raises important questions: Why did Germany's leadership opt to keep the BND's findings under wraps? Were these crucial insights shared with the Trump administration in 2020 or the Biden administration before late 2024?

Given that both the United States and Germany are part of the Five Eyes Alliance, which emphasizes the importance of sharing significant intelligence regarding global issues like a pandemic, this secrecy is troubling. It undermines trust and transparency among allied nations, highlighting the pressing need for openness in international intelligence sharing.

A key reason behind Merkel and Scholz's silence may stem from their fear of endangering Germany's vital economic ties with China, its largest trading partner. A survey found that 46% of German manufacturing firms rely on essential intermediate goods from China, and China's market has consistently been the top destination for German-made products. While this relationship has driven substantial economic growth for Germany over the years, it also presents significant risks to both economic stability and national security that cannot be overlooked.

Furthermore, Scholz had an additional motive to tread carefully with China. In the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Scholz naively believed that he could convince Xi, the Chinese leader, to intervene and end the war. However, this perspective disregarded the reality that Xi and Putin declared publicly that the two countries relationship has “no limits.” China’s support has been instrumental in helping Putin circumvent Western sanctions and sustain his military actions. Scholz's miscalculation not only failed to bring about an end to the conflict but may have inadvertently bolstered the China-Russia alliance, setting the stage for concerning geopolitical repercussions in the future.

#3 They all lied to us then so why did some choose to speak truth now?